In December 1988, the Polish Trade Union “Solidarity” started organizing peaceful protests aimed to force the Communist Party to respect human rights and open space for political freedoms, especially freedom of expression and assembly. Headed by Lech Walesa, the union managed to force the ruling party to recognize them in February 1989.
In Romania, President Ceauşescu always said that his country would not be affected by this wave of protests, that Poland and Czechoslovakia are completely different than Romania. Poland is Catholic, while Romania follows the Orthodox Church. In Poland, Pope John Paul II strongly pressured for freedom of religion in his country, which received greater attention than other Eastern European countries. Romania, on the other hand, was the only country void of Soviet forces amongst the Socialist bloc. Ceauşescu boasted of the ability of Romanian intelligence to violently suppress any signs of dissent or opposition.
The protests were delayed when they reached Romania in December 1989, but in the end they came in the form of a “revolution,” as Romanians like to call it. It was violent revolution and ended with the execution of Ceauşescu and his wife.
This is precisely the case of Syria and Libya. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian president stated that he is immune to the disturbances that occurred in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Yemen due to his anti-American stance and the conflict with Israel. Thus, he is repeating Ceauşescu’s same mistake in the past. The Syrian security apparatus is greatly similar to Egypt, Algeria, and Yemen. This is an additional factor instigating unrest and protests in Syria. If they take place, they will be bloodier and more violent due to the higher level of repression.
The unemployment rate in Syria is the same as it is in Egypt. However, Egypt has achieved growth rates of 7-8 % over the last five years, while Syria has achieved no more than 4% in the last year and a very modest or negative rate in the last ten years. Syria’s alliance with Hezbollah and Iran has increased the anger in Syria’s streets rather than relieve them and Syrians are always looking west as the famous proverb says. The Iranian regime’s suppression of protests following the last presidential elections revealed the truth of the Iranian “ally” regarding the respect for human rights and democratic principles.
Thus, Syria is an ideal case for a revolution, given the state of political and economic failure in addition to the stories of corruption surrounding Rami Makhlouf and other new wealth businessmen who mainly relied on the alliance with the security services in order to build their wealth. This corrupt alliance demonstrates the gap between a class that is increasingly becoming wealthier and another that is getting poorer. According to official statistics, 30% of Syrians live below the poverty line, which makes the predisposing factors of anger in Syria identical to what happened in Tunisia.
Fear is the main factor delaying revolution from taking place in Syria. It is the fear of repression by security apparatuses, which boast that they do not hesitate in using violence against demonstrators and stimulate the memory of fear that has been imbedded in Syrian minds after the events of the 1980’s, which left more than 30,000 people dead, more than 125,000 political prisoners, and 17,000 people missing, their whereabouts unknown to their families until today. In addition, torture has become the consistent practice used to psychologically deter political demands or requests for change.
However, I think the snowball that started in Tunisia has been repeated in Egypt as well as other Arab countries. Reaching Syria is merely a matter of time, perhaps it will be late but in the end it will happen.
Radwan Ziadeh is a Prins Global Fellow at Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University and a Visiting Scholar at The Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS) at Georgetown University.
In Romania, President Ceauşescu always said that his country would not be affected by this wave of protests, that Poland and Czechoslovakia are completely different than Romania. Poland is Catholic, while Romania follows the Orthodox Church. In Poland, Pope John Paul II strongly pressured for freedom of religion in his country, which received greater attention than other Eastern European countries. Romania, on the other hand, was the only country void of Soviet forces amongst the Socialist bloc. Ceauşescu boasted of the ability of Romanian intelligence to violently suppress any signs of dissent or opposition.
The protests were delayed when they reached Romania in December 1989, but in the end they came in the form of a “revolution,” as Romanians like to call it. It was violent revolution and ended with the execution of Ceauşescu and his wife.
This is precisely the case of Syria and Libya. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian president stated that he is immune to the disturbances that occurred in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Yemen due to his anti-American stance and the conflict with Israel. Thus, he is repeating Ceauşescu’s same mistake in the past. The Syrian security apparatus is greatly similar to Egypt, Algeria, and Yemen. This is an additional factor instigating unrest and protests in Syria. If they take place, they will be bloodier and more violent due to the higher level of repression.
The unemployment rate in Syria is the same as it is in Egypt. However, Egypt has achieved growth rates of 7-8 % over the last five years, while Syria has achieved no more than 4% in the last year and a very modest or negative rate in the last ten years. Syria’s alliance with Hezbollah and Iran has increased the anger in Syria’s streets rather than relieve them and Syrians are always looking west as the famous proverb says. The Iranian regime’s suppression of protests following the last presidential elections revealed the truth of the Iranian “ally” regarding the respect for human rights and democratic principles.
Thus, Syria is an ideal case for a revolution, given the state of political and economic failure in addition to the stories of corruption surrounding Rami Makhlouf and other new wealth businessmen who mainly relied on the alliance with the security services in order to build their wealth. This corrupt alliance demonstrates the gap between a class that is increasingly becoming wealthier and another that is getting poorer. According to official statistics, 30% of Syrians live below the poverty line, which makes the predisposing factors of anger in Syria identical to what happened in Tunisia.
Fear is the main factor delaying revolution from taking place in Syria. It is the fear of repression by security apparatuses, which boast that they do not hesitate in using violence against demonstrators and stimulate the memory of fear that has been imbedded in Syrian minds after the events of the 1980’s, which left more than 30,000 people dead, more than 125,000 political prisoners, and 17,000 people missing, their whereabouts unknown to their families until today. In addition, torture has become the consistent practice used to psychologically deter political demands or requests for change.
However, I think the snowball that started in Tunisia has been repeated in Egypt as well as other Arab countries. Reaching Syria is merely a matter of time, perhaps it will be late but in the end it will happen.
Radwan Ziadeh is a Prins Global Fellow at Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University and a Visiting Scholar at The Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS) at Georgetown University.
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