David Pollock, a contributor for Fikra Forum, appeared on an episode of Al-Hurra’s “All Directions” on June 4th. Accompanied by other experts, he spoke of the latest developments in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The following are his comments and analysis on these critical issues.
On Syria:
Mr. Pollock declared, “I believe that, unfortunately, the new period will be full of massacres in Syria. The regime is not compromising, is not stepping down, and is not refraining from armed violence against the Syrian people, on the one hand. On the other hand, the Syrian people are not desisting in their opposition, their protests, and their legitimate and natural demands for rights, democracy, and freedom. For this reason, I foresee, unfortunately, a long period full of blood and victims in Syria.” He then added, “In addition, I don’t see foreign intervention in Syria the way we see it in Libya. But there is a secret, persistent intervention in Syria from Iran. Iran supports the Syrian regime. These are facts, although they are covered up.’”
Addressing the general amnesty announced by President Assad, Mr. Pollock commented, “The truth, unfortunately, is that the amnesty is partial, in the sense that it is temporary and it doesn’t include the arrested protestors and it doesn’t include those that are jailed in the secret prisons in Syria. It includes a hundred or a few hundred detainees, but there are thousands of imprisoned people. This is the truth, and this is why the Muslim Brotherhood refused, in a clear way, to accept this amnesty as a solution to the crisis in Syria. The leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood that participated in the conference in Antalya in Turkey refused to accept the amnesty as a solution to the crisis and this, in my personal opinion, is logical and natural because this amnesty is a type of political trick or political lie from the Syrian regime, and it is not genuine.”
The discussion turned to the arming of opposition members and the possibility of armed battles in the Syrian crisis; Mr. Pollock commented, “I don’t see the Libyan model, because of the foreign intervention in Libya.” He added, “But the Yemeni model… there’s a possibility for the repetition of the Yemeni model in Syria. I believe that the use of weapons by the protestors and by the opposition is just self-defense, it’s defensive and not offensive. The truth is that most of the deaths and the injuries, the serious injuries, have been on the side of the protestors and the innocent citizens, not on the side of the Syrian security forces. I believe that the ‘facts’ about deaths and injuries among the security forces aren’t true.”
On Yemen:
The experts then spoke about the latest developments in Yemen. When Mr. Pollock was asked about the country’s future, he said, “In all honesty, I don’t know. We don’t have information that we can trust. It appears that President Saleh was injured in a serious way. There is a lack of stability and a lack of information, and in all honesty, we don’t know what the future is in Yemen. And if Saleh stepped down, we still wouldn’t know, because the opposition is completely divided and the whole country is completely divided, and there will be instability whether Saleh steps down or not.”
On Iraq:
Finally, with respect to Iranian interest in a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, Mr. Pollock stated that this interest does exist, adding, “I think the biggest indicator of this is the position of the Sadrists in Iraq. They reflect the views of Iran, and there is a request from them for the permanent departure of U.S. forces from Iraq. I believe that the appropriate response would be courage from Iraqi officials and leaders toward Iranian pressure on them. I believe that the first step in this positive response was Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s statement that this issue should be on the agenda. He supports and calls for free discussion about the issue of American troops staying in Iraq, and this is the first step to a final result for the end of this year, which would be a new agreement."
To watch the interview as it appeared in Arabic, follow this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nhEbscfgj4.
David Pollock is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on the political dynamics of Middle Eastern countries. Previously, he served as senior advisor for the Broader Middle East at the State Department where he provided policy advice on issues of democracy and reform in the region, with a focus on women’s rights.
On Syria:
Mr. Pollock declared, “I believe that, unfortunately, the new period will be full of massacres in Syria. The regime is not compromising, is not stepping down, and is not refraining from armed violence against the Syrian people, on the one hand. On the other hand, the Syrian people are not desisting in their opposition, their protests, and their legitimate and natural demands for rights, democracy, and freedom. For this reason, I foresee, unfortunately, a long period full of blood and victims in Syria.” He then added, “In addition, I don’t see foreign intervention in Syria the way we see it in Libya. But there is a secret, persistent intervention in Syria from Iran. Iran supports the Syrian regime. These are facts, although they are covered up.’”
Addressing the general amnesty announced by President Assad, Mr. Pollock commented, “The truth, unfortunately, is that the amnesty is partial, in the sense that it is temporary and it doesn’t include the arrested protestors and it doesn’t include those that are jailed in the secret prisons in Syria. It includes a hundred or a few hundred detainees, but there are thousands of imprisoned people. This is the truth, and this is why the Muslim Brotherhood refused, in a clear way, to accept this amnesty as a solution to the crisis in Syria. The leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood that participated in the conference in Antalya in Turkey refused to accept the amnesty as a solution to the crisis and this, in my personal opinion, is logical and natural because this amnesty is a type of political trick or political lie from the Syrian regime, and it is not genuine.”
The discussion turned to the arming of opposition members and the possibility of armed battles in the Syrian crisis; Mr. Pollock commented, “I don’t see the Libyan model, because of the foreign intervention in Libya.” He added, “But the Yemeni model… there’s a possibility for the repetition of the Yemeni model in Syria. I believe that the use of weapons by the protestors and by the opposition is just self-defense, it’s defensive and not offensive. The truth is that most of the deaths and the injuries, the serious injuries, have been on the side of the protestors and the innocent citizens, not on the side of the Syrian security forces. I believe that the ‘facts’ about deaths and injuries among the security forces aren’t true.”
On Yemen:
The experts then spoke about the latest developments in Yemen. When Mr. Pollock was asked about the country’s future, he said, “In all honesty, I don’t know. We don’t have information that we can trust. It appears that President Saleh was injured in a serious way. There is a lack of stability and a lack of information, and in all honesty, we don’t know what the future is in Yemen. And if Saleh stepped down, we still wouldn’t know, because the opposition is completely divided and the whole country is completely divided, and there will be instability whether Saleh steps down or not.”
On Iraq:
Finally, with respect to Iranian interest in a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, Mr. Pollock stated that this interest does exist, adding, “I think the biggest indicator of this is the position of the Sadrists in Iraq. They reflect the views of Iran, and there is a request from them for the permanent departure of U.S. forces from Iraq. I believe that the appropriate response would be courage from Iraqi officials and leaders toward Iranian pressure on them. I believe that the first step in this positive response was Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s statement that this issue should be on the agenda. He supports and calls for free discussion about the issue of American troops staying in Iraq, and this is the first step to a final result for the end of this year, which would be a new agreement."
To watch the interview as it appeared in Arabic, follow this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nhEbscfgj4.
David Pollock is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on the political dynamics of Middle Eastern countries. Previously, he served as senior advisor for the Broader Middle East at the State Department where he provided policy advice on issues of democracy and reform in the region, with a focus on women’s rights.
Of the events in Libya, Yemen and Syria, the outcome of the Syrian protests is bound to impact the most regional stability and peace.
The Syrian regime has been a major instigator of conflicts and trouble in the Middle East especially in neighboring Lebanon, Iraq and the Gaza strip. By allying itself with the Iranian theocracy, offering a haven to extremist organizations and by supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime continued to send terrorists and arms to Iraq while reaffirming Hezbollah’s hold on Lebanon. It allowed Iran to extend its influence in the Middle East and to threaten and intimidate U.S. allies in the region.
Whatever the alternative regime, the Middle East is sure to be a better place without Assad.