Judgment of the success of Libya’s election can be determined by the single fact that 62% of the total electorate exercised their right to vote on July 7th. The sporadic disruptions from either the federalists or from those protesting the allocations of seats had an impact on the turnout, but it also helped the people of Libya stand up to anarchy. It was the people’s commitment that finally brought the nation to its first vote in over four decades, just nine months after the announcement of liberation.
According to early trends in election results, Mahmoud Jibril’s relatively liberal alliance of “58” parties, the National Forces Alliance (NFA), was leading in the party lists, but as results for the individual seats are starting to come in, the whole scenario has begun to change. The surprise in the Libyan elections is not how Jibril’s alliance got so many seats, but how some of the main parties, predicted to do well, performed so poorly.
The politics in Libya is different than that of its neighboring countries and the political parties cannot simply be classified as liberal or conservative. In fact, none of the parties can be considered “liberal” if only their manifestoes are considered. The reason behind the success and failure of various candidates is principally due to the presence or absence of familiar faces in the background of their campaign posters.
Despite underperforming in the party lists, the Islamists, primarily represented by the Muslim Brotherhood linked Justice and Construction Party (JCP), recovered from this loss by winning the seats of individual candidates. Once confident of gaining 60 percent of the total seats, the Islamists now expect the national congress to hang in an even balance unless a coalition is formed between the parties opposing Jibril and his alliance. With such a coalition in opposition to Jibril’s coalition, the JCP expects to gain around 55 seats, while the coalition is hopeful of getting around 110 seats between them. Thus, even if the NFA is considered a liberal force along with the National Front Party, it is unlikely that they will be in a position to dictate any policy or pass any legislation with ease.
The electoral system of Libya is complicated and was devised in a way to ensure that no one group or party is allowed a majority to dictate its ideology or policy during the transitional phase. The national congress, once elected, will be tasked to map out a mechanism to hold elections for the 60 member constitutional committee to draft Libya’s new constitution. The constitutional committee will be comprised of 20 members from each region of Libya: Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica. Originally, the committee was to be appointed by the national congress, but just days before the elections the National Transitional Council (NTC) passed an amendment that addressed the concerns of many in the eastern region over seat allocation; this amendment helped improve the overall turnout on the day of voting. The congress will also appoint a new interim government to run the affairs of the country until general elections take place by the end of 2013.
While predominant challenges facing the national congress include the ratification of the constitution, working and effective local councils, proliferation of arms, forming a national army, dissolving the militias, ending regional clashes, controlling the border, and reconciliation; legitimacy will likely be the biggest factor to work in their favor, which is something that the previous ruling council, the NTC, lacked.
The people’s mandate is vital to the legitimacy of the new government. Its value in helping the national congress solve national issues can be understood through the example of federalism. The federalists, after attacking buildings of the electoral commission and threatening to use violence, have now offered to dissolve their Cyrenaica Transitional Council in wake of the successful elections, stating that the “people of Libya have spoken.” The national congress will rely heavily on its mandate to solve the outstanding problems of Libya. However, issues such as reconciliation and remaining loyalist pockets will require more than the conventional politics. With most of the militia adamant about “sweeping” areas such as Bani Walid and, more broadly, areas east of Tripoli, it will be an arduous task to go about reconciliation without further bloodshed.
The other major challenge facing the elected national congress will be finding a way to rein in the militias. Many of the armed brigades have joined the interior ministry forces, while some of the others have joined the national army. The remaining brigades, as a separate body, are working in coordination with the ministries. The challenge will be to offer the militias a worthy alternative to tempt them back into civilian life.
The emergence of strong militias in cities across Libya posed great difficulties for the NTC and the lack of popular support for the transitional council enabled these regional militias to take advantage of the situation. Various brigade commanders, on separate occasions, have said that they will only surrender arms once the security apparatus is effective enough to provide protection for the people. The formation of a proper national army will facilitate the dissolution of different brigades and can be achieved by supporting the existing structure in terms of funding and authority.
The cities of Misurata and Zintan, which emerged as the big players in the Libyan revolution, had significant influence on the interim government due to its strong militia backing. Widely believed to be a result of bargaining, a minister from each of the two cities was awarded the influential roles of Minister of Defense and Minister of the Interior. However, this is subject to change, as popular support will now be the crucial and decisive factor for congress in solving these sensitive issues.
Umar Khan is journalist and writer based in Libya, focusing on Libyan political and security developments.
According to early trends in election results, Mahmoud Jibril’s relatively liberal alliance of “58” parties, the National Forces Alliance (NFA), was leading in the party lists, but as results for the individual seats are starting to come in, the whole scenario has begun to change. The surprise in the Libyan elections is not how Jibril’s alliance got so many seats, but how some of the main parties, predicted to do well, performed so poorly.
The politics in Libya is different than that of its neighboring countries and the political parties cannot simply be classified as liberal or conservative. In fact, none of the parties can be considered “liberal” if only their manifestoes are considered. The reason behind the success and failure of various candidates is principally due to the presence or absence of familiar faces in the background of their campaign posters.
Despite underperforming in the party lists, the Islamists, primarily represented by the Muslim Brotherhood linked Justice and Construction Party (JCP), recovered from this loss by winning the seats of individual candidates. Once confident of gaining 60 percent of the total seats, the Islamists now expect the national congress to hang in an even balance unless a coalition is formed between the parties opposing Jibril and his alliance. With such a coalition in opposition to Jibril’s coalition, the JCP expects to gain around 55 seats, while the coalition is hopeful of getting around 110 seats between them. Thus, even if the NFA is considered a liberal force along with the National Front Party, it is unlikely that they will be in a position to dictate any policy or pass any legislation with ease.
The electoral system of Libya is complicated and was devised in a way to ensure that no one group or party is allowed a majority to dictate its ideology or policy during the transitional phase. The national congress, once elected, will be tasked to map out a mechanism to hold elections for the 60 member constitutional committee to draft Libya’s new constitution. The constitutional committee will be comprised of 20 members from each region of Libya: Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica. Originally, the committee was to be appointed by the national congress, but just days before the elections the National Transitional Council (NTC) passed an amendment that addressed the concerns of many in the eastern region over seat allocation; this amendment helped improve the overall turnout on the day of voting. The congress will also appoint a new interim government to run the affairs of the country until general elections take place by the end of 2013.
While predominant challenges facing the national congress include the ratification of the constitution, working and effective local councils, proliferation of arms, forming a national army, dissolving the militias, ending regional clashes, controlling the border, and reconciliation; legitimacy will likely be the biggest factor to work in their favor, which is something that the previous ruling council, the NTC, lacked.
The people’s mandate is vital to the legitimacy of the new government. Its value in helping the national congress solve national issues can be understood through the example of federalism. The federalists, after attacking buildings of the electoral commission and threatening to use violence, have now offered to dissolve their Cyrenaica Transitional Council in wake of the successful elections, stating that the “people of Libya have spoken.” The national congress will rely heavily on its mandate to solve the outstanding problems of Libya. However, issues such as reconciliation and remaining loyalist pockets will require more than the conventional politics. With most of the militia adamant about “sweeping” areas such as Bani Walid and, more broadly, areas east of Tripoli, it will be an arduous task to go about reconciliation without further bloodshed.
The other major challenge facing the elected national congress will be finding a way to rein in the militias. Many of the armed brigades have joined the interior ministry forces, while some of the others have joined the national army. The remaining brigades, as a separate body, are working in coordination with the ministries. The challenge will be to offer the militias a worthy alternative to tempt them back into civilian life.
The emergence of strong militias in cities across Libya posed great difficulties for the NTC and the lack of popular support for the transitional council enabled these regional militias to take advantage of the situation. Various brigade commanders, on separate occasions, have said that they will only surrender arms once the security apparatus is effective enough to provide protection for the people. The formation of a proper national army will facilitate the dissolution of different brigades and can be achieved by supporting the existing structure in terms of funding and authority.
The cities of Misurata and Zintan, which emerged as the big players in the Libyan revolution, had significant influence on the interim government due to its strong militia backing. Widely believed to be a result of bargaining, a minister from each of the two cities was awarded the influential roles of Minister of Defense and Minister of the Interior. However, this is subject to change, as popular support will now be the crucial and decisive factor for congress in solving these sensitive issues.
Umar Khan is journalist and writer based in Libya, focusing on Libyan political and security developments.
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